Via email, the rest of what follows is a guest post from Steen Jakobsen.
Headlines for Next 6-7 Months
- US, German and EU core government bonds will be 100 basis points higher by and in Q4 before making final new low in H1 2016. The US 10-year bond yield will trade above 3.0% and German Bunds 1.25%
- WTI crude will hit US $ 70-80/barrel setting up excellent energy returns.
- US dollar will weaken to EUR 1.18/1.20 then start multi-year weakness.
- Gold will be the best performer in commodity-led rally. We see 1425-1435 by year-end.
Average Annual Inflation by Decade
We need to stop talking deflation and using 1930s comparison on Fed hike.
US Real Rates
Real rates finally coming off in the US. Positive Gold and negative for US$?
US Germany Breakeven Rates
Inflation expectations rising fast.
European Growth
European “cost advantage” is disappearing fast and furious. Enjoy the summer of growth – behind comes: zero growth, zero reform and higher inflation “expectations”.
Central Bank Balance Sheets
Excuse me? Didn’t ECB start QE – in world of madness? Hard even to see change in ECB balance sheet. Japan is just not real, for that matter nothing is!
US High Yield vs. S&P 500
Clearly the credit cycle has peaked.
LQD - US Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
CRY - Core Commodity Index
Compare commodities to investment grade bonds.
Fed Hike Indicator
When the FED hikes it’s a margin call. There is no basis in their mandate to do hike, but their need to normalize will have data support over summer as CESI (Citi Surprise Index will mean revert).
I have been traveling like a mad man: France, UK, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Kazakhstan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Slovenia, Hungary, Czech and Netherlands. And next few weeks: London (CNBC guest hosting Friday), Switzerland, China and Japan. I have plenty to report.
Upcoming Teasers
- CEE is the canary in the coal mine for QE
- Mining is underowned and underpriced
- Inflation is coming back
- Silk Road is for real
- Autocratic government in for hard time across Europe
- Unfortunately still no reforms anywhere, but great clients, risk takers and media
Safe travels
Steen
Mish Comments
When Steen says there is no basis for a US rate hike, he is talking from the Fed perspective of CPI inflation.
He has commented before that the Fed may hike simply to prick asset bubbles and/or to simply do what they keep saying they will do.
I have no target for the price of gold. Rather, like Steen, I believe it is an unloved asset likely to outperform.
Finally, I have my doubts that interest rates will hit a new low in 2016, but if they do, panic will be in the air over crashing equities or asset prices in general.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Posts
Thank you for reaching out to us. We are happy to receive your opinion and request. If you need advert or sponsored post, We’re excited you’re considering advertising or sponsoring a post on our blog. Your support is what keeps us going. With the current trend, it’s very obvious content marketing is the way to go. Banner advertising and trying to get customers through Google Adwords may get you customers but it has been proven beyond doubt that Content Marketing has more lasting benefits.
We offer majorly two types of advertising:
1. Sponsored Posts: If you are really interested in publishing a sponsored post or a press release, video content, advertorial or any other kind of sponsored post, then you are at the right place.
WHAT KIND OF SPONSORED POSTS DO WE ACCEPT?
Generally, a sponsored post can be any of the following:
Press release
Advertorial
Video content
Article
Interview
This kind of post is usually written to promote you or your business. However, we do prefer posts that naturally flow with the site’s general content. This means we can also promote artists, songs, cosmetic products and things that you love of all products or services.
DURATION & BONUSES
Every sponsored article will remain live on the site as long as this website exists. The duration is indefinite! Again, we will share your post on our social media channels and our email subscribers too will get to read your article. You’re exposing your article to our: Twitter followers, Facebook fans and other social networks.
We will also try as much as possible to optimize your post for search engines as well.
Submission of Materials : Sponsored post should be well written in English language and all materials must be delivered via electronic medium. All sponsored posts must be delivered via electronic version, either on disk or e-mail on Microsoft Word unless otherwise noted.
PRICING
The price largely depends on if you’re writing the content or we’re to do that. But if your are writing the content, it is $100 per article.
2. Banner Advertising: We also offer banner advertising in various sizes and of course, our prices are flexible. you may choose to for the weekly rate or simply buy your desired number of impressions.
Technical Details And Pricing
Banner Size 300 X 250 pixels : Appears on the home page and below all pages on the site.
Banner Size 728 X 90 pixels: Appears on the top right Corner of the homepage and all pages on the site.
Large rectangle Banner Size (336x280) : Appears on the home page and below all pages on the site.
Small square (200x200) : Appears on the right side of the home page and all pages on the site.
Half page (300x600) : Appears on the right side of the home page and all pages on the site.
Portrait (300x1050) : Appears on the right side of the home page and all pages on the site.
Billboard (970x250) : Appears on the home page.
Submission of Materials : Banner ads can be in jpeg, jpg and gif format. All materials must be deliverd via electronic medium. All ads must be delivered via electronic version, either on disk or e-mail in the ordered pixel dimensions unless otherwise noted.
For advertising offers, send an email with your name,company, website, country and advert or sponsored post you want to appear on our website to advert @ alexa. ng
Normally, we should respond within 48 hours.