Lagos State Assembly Crisis: Who Gets What and Who Loses What

 

The crisis rocking the Lagos State House of Assembly reached a fever pitch on February 17, 2025, as security forces sealed off the Assembly complex, adding fuel to the already combustible political environment. The imposition of a blockade by both the police and the Department of State Services (DSS) has left many questions unanswered: who stands to benefit from this unprecedented move, and who is set to lose out in this high-stakes political drama? What is clear is that the outcome of this confrontation will shape the future of Lagos politics in the months to come.

The Blockade: A Strategic Play to Secure the Assembly?

The dramatic intervention by security agencies came at a critical moment when tensions were already high within the Assembly. The move was reportedly instigated by a letter from the Assembly itself, urging the DSS and police to step in and prevent the impeached Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, from resuming his post. The blockade was meant to secure the Assembly from any unlawful efforts to reverse the decision of the lawmakers who had impeached Obasa in January over allegations of financial mismanagement.

Obasa’s removal had sparked bitter infighting within the House, with two factions jostling for control of the leadership. One faction, loyal to the ousted speaker, sought his reinstatement, while the other, led by Speaker Mojisola Meranda, had vowed to maintain control, asserting that the decision to impeach Obasa was final. The involvement of security forces, particularly the police and DSS, lent a sense of urgency to the situation, with both agencies acting as enforcers of political stability—at least for the time being.

Who Stands to Benefit?

1. Mojisola Meranda and Her Supporters

If there’s one group that stands to benefit from the blockade, it’s Speaker Mojisola Meranda and her supporters within the House. The security presence essentially guarantees that Meranda’s leadership remains uncontested for now. The blockade prevents Obasa from returning to the Speaker’s office and consolidates her control. It gives her a platform to strengthen her position within the Assembly, presenting her as a leader who can stand firm against external challenges, including efforts to undermine her authority.

Meranda’s faction will also be seen as the true defenders of the rule of law, positioning themselves as the legitimate leadership of the Assembly. This could open doors for further political leverage, particularly in influencing key legislative decisions. The longer the blockade lasts, the more it becomes apparent that Meranda’s leadership is not just a matter of political maneuvering but one backed by the full force of the law and the security apparatus.

2. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu

Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s interests align with those of Meranda. A stable Assembly under Meranda's leadership is beneficial for the governor's administration, which may have been losing some of its political clout due to the infighting within the legislature. By supporting Meranda’s faction, Sanwo-Olu ensures that his influence within the state government remains intact. This also presents him with the opportunity to distance himself from the unrest caused by the leadership tussle in the Assembly. The blockade, then, could be seen as a tool to secure his political agenda by ensuring that the legislature is aligned with his administration’s goals.

The governor may also use this moment to reinforce his authority, showing both the Assembly and the citizens of Lagos that his government can handle internal political crises swiftly and decisively.

3. Federal Government and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

On a broader level, the federal government—particularly President Bola Ahmed Tinubu—could also stand to gain from the blockade. The direct involvement of the police and DSS in securing the Assembly complex signals that the federal government has a strong hand in Lagos politics, despite the state’s autonomy. The intervention could be a statement of political control, sending a message to all factions in the state that there is a limit to the degree of disunity allowed. For President Tinubu, ensuring political stability in Lagos, a state critical to his influence, could be a key victory, bolstering his political legitimacy nationwide.

The federal government’s actions also underscore its commitment to maintaining order in critical political institutions, ensuring that no individual can override the rule of law for personal or partisan gain.

4. Anti-Obasa Factions

Factions opposed to the reinstatement of Obasa, likely including key political figures within the state and the Assembly, will also find themselves benefiting from the blockade. This move effectively quashes any hope that Obasa could return to his position as Speaker, sidelining his loyalists and paving the way for a new chapter in the state’s political landscape. By preventing Obasa’s comeback, these factions stand to gain significant political influence, particularly as the power vacuum in the Assembly gives rise to new alliances and power dynamics. The blockade consolidates their hold over the legislative body, which is crucial for passing key bills and shaping policy.

Who Stands to Lose?

1. Mudashiru Obasa and His Supporters

On the flip side, the biggest losers in this entire scenario are Mudashiru Obasa and his supporters. The blockade and the presence of security forces all but ensure that their efforts to have Obasa reinstated are thwarted for now. For Obasa, the blockade represents the ultimate humiliation—a decisive blow to his political career and his standing within the Assembly. The blockade forces his loyalists into a corner, and without the Speaker's position, they find themselves with little leverage in the Assembly.

Obasa’s political future is now in limbo, with his ability to mount a comeback increasingly uncertain. His supporters, who had hoped for a reversal of the impeachment, are left scrambling to maintain their positions in the face of intense opposition.

2. The Lagos State House of Assembly as an Institution

The entire Lagos State House of Assembly stands to lose from the crisis. The infighting, the political maneuvering, and now the heavy-handed intervention of security forces paint a picture of a legislature in turmoil. The public’s trust in the Assembly is at risk, as the continued dysfunction of the institution detracts from its ability to function effectively. Lawmakers are distracted by factional battles, which means that the people of Lagos are being deprived of the legislative focus and accountability they deserve.

Furthermore, the blockade undermines the independence of the legislature. The intrusion of federal security forces into the state's political affairs raises serious questions about the autonomy of the Assembly. The security presence, in many ways, symbolizes an erosion of democratic principles, with the legislature being forced to rely on external forces to maintain order.

3. The Police and DSS Leadership

If the political dynamics surrounding the blockade are viewed as politically motivated or mishandled, the leadership of the Lagos State Police and the DSS could face severe consequences. There are concerns that the security agencies overstepped their mandate, intervening in what is essentially a political struggle between factions within the legislature. If the federal government determines that the response by the police and DSS was either politically biased or disproportionate, it could lead to a reassessment of the leadership within these agencies.

Such scrutiny could tarnish their reputations and diminish public trust in their ability to act impartially, especially in politically sensitive matters.

Public Perception and Trust at Stake

At the heart of this political drama lies the battle for public perception. Lagos residents are watching closely as their elected representatives bicker, backed by the full force of the security agencies. If the crisis is not handled swiftly and transparently, it could lead to a further erosion of public trust in both the state government and the Assembly. Citizens may view the security presence as an overreach, and the inability of the legislature to resolve its internal disputes could breed frustration and disillusionment.

Conclusion: A Crisis With Far-Reaching Consequences

As the blockade at the Lagos State House of Assembly persists, it is clear that this crisis will have significant repercussions for the political future of Lagos State. While some factions stand to gain from the heightened security and the status quo being maintained, others face political ruin and the loss of influence. The final outcome will depend not just on the actions of the Assembly but on the broader political forces at play, including the role of the state and federal governments. One thing is certain: the struggle for control of the Lagos State House of Assembly is far from over, and its resolution will shape the political landscape of Lagos for years to come.