Just days after his high-profile defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai is generating controversy as a central figure in the opposition’s strategy to prevent President Bola Tinubu from securing a second term in 2027, according to political analysts.

Protests and Internal SDP Dynamics

On Wednesday, El-Rufai’s supporters staged a dramatic protest at the SDP’s national headquarters in Abuja, demanding the ouster of National Secretary Dr. Olu Agunloye. The protesters, wielding placards, accused Agunloye of fraud, referencing his ongoing trial over an alleged $6 billion Mambilla power project scam. The demonstration prompted Agunloye to seek police protection through a petition to the Inspector General of Police.

Sources familiar with the situation suggest that El-Rufai’s allies are concerned about Agunloye’s past ties to Tinubu and his South-West origin, viewing his position as a potential obstacle in their mission to unseat a president from the same region.

Tinubu’s Alleged SDP Connection

Political observers in Abuja have raised eyebrows over unverified claims that Tinubu may have preempted El-Rufai’s move by establishing influence within the SDP. Reports from 2022 suggested the SDP was Tinubu’s “Plan B” if he had failed to secure the APC presidential ticket. While these claims remain speculative, they fuel suspicions of strategic maneuvering ahead of 2027.

A Fractured Past with Tinubu

El-Rufai’s fallout with Tinubu marks a dramatic shift from their alliance during the 2022 APC primaries, where El-Rufai played a pivotal role in rallying northern governors to support Tinubu’s candidacy. Analysts attribute the rift to Tinubu’s associates seeking retribution for El-Rufai’s earlier criticisms, including his 2019 remarks urging Lagos politicians to emulate his defeat of political godfathers in Kaduna.

The relationship soured further when the Senate rejected El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination, citing an undisclosed “security issue” from the Department of State Services (DSS). A senator, speaking anonymously to Sunday Vanguard, clarified that no formal DSS report was circulated, raising questions about the legitimacy of the rejection. El-Rufai is reportedly considering legal action to compel Senate President Godswill Akpabio to produce the alleged security report, amid allegations that Tinubu orchestrated his exclusion.

El-Rufai’s 2027 Strategy

Sources within the opposition confirm that El-Rufai is not eyeing an elective position in 2027 but is instead focused on mobilizing a broad coalition to derail Tinubu’s re-election. “His goal is to send Tinubu and his allies back to Lagos,” a prominent associate of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who contested against Tinubu in 2023, revealed.

El-Rufai’s organizational prowess, demonstrated during the 2022 APC primaries, gives him a strategic edge. He is reportedly maintaining close ties with several northern governors, leveraging his influence to build opposition momentum. Notably, El-Rufai appears to be warming to Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, despite previously undermining him. His son Bashir recently tweeted about being misled by the APC regarding Obi’s qualities, signaling a potential shift in alliances.

SDP’s Role in the Opposition Coalition

While El-Rufai’s defection has spotlighted the SDP, doubts persist about its viability as the opposition’s final platform. Adewole Adebayo, the SDP’s 2023 presidential candidate, has reiterated his intent to run again in 2027, highlighting internal divisions. “Everyone joining the party knows I will run in 2027,” Adebayo stated in a recent television interview, underscoring potential friction within the opposition coalition.

Opposition sources downplay the significance of the SDP as the ultimate vehicle, emphasizing that the focus is on unity rather than specific parties or personalities.

What Lies Ahead

While his organizational skills and northern influence make him a formidable player, the opposition’s success will hinge on its ability to unite disparate factions and navigate internal rivalries. As Tinubu consolidates power within the APC, the road to 2027 promises to be a contentious one, with El-Rufai’s next moves closely watched by allies and adversaries alike.